China’s Airlines Face Rising Traffic but Falling Profits
客流上升，利润下降：中国航空业的矛盾困局
China’s airlines are experiencing a puzzling trend: passenger volumes have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, yet profits remain elusive. According to a new Embraer report, China is on track to reach 1.5 billion annual travellers by 2035, but carriers are trapped in structural overcapacity. More than 65% of flights crowd already saturated trunk routes, many with over 800 daily passengers and served by multiple competitors. Load factors reach about 76%, but intense frequency battles and fare cuts are eroding returns. Fleet structures worsen the imbalance, as over 80% of narrowbody jets are designed for high-capacity short routes, leaving smaller markets neglected. Meanwhile, China’s expanding high-speed rail network continues to draw travellers away, forcing airlines into tougher fights for the remaining profitable routes.
中国航空公司正面临一个悖论：旅客量已超过疫情前水平，但盈利却依然困难。巴西飞机制造商恩布拉尔的报告称，中国有望在2035年达到每年15亿旅客，但行业陷入结构性产能过剩。超过65%的航班集中在已饱和的干线航线上，许多航线每天旅客超过800人且竞争者众多。客座率虽达约76%，但频率战和票价压力正在侵蚀收益。机队结构进一步加剧失衡，超过80%的窄体机适用于高密度短程航线，低密度市场被忽视。同时，中国不断扩张的高铁网络持续分流旅客，让航空公司在剩余盈利航线上竞争更加激烈。
