Vanke’s Debt Test Signals China’s Policy Crossroads
万科债务考验揭示中国政策十字路口
As 2025 ends, China’s property crisis is again in focus after Fitch downgraded China Vanke to near-default status, underscoring risks for the sector’s last major survivor. The downgrade comes amid weakening economic data, including softer consumer spending, slowing investment, and continued declines in new-home prices across major cities. These trends raise doubts about Beijing’s long-promised measures to stabilize property markets, which appear increasingly ineffective as China enters a fourth year of deflation. Economists warn that excess supply, weak demand, and reliance on export-led growth could prolong deflationary pressures into 2026. Comparisons with Japan’s long stagnation are growing, as property once drove up to a third of China’s growth. Combined with high US tariffs, the unresolved property reckoning threatens to weigh on China’s economy for years.
随着2025年接近尾声，中国房地产危机再度引发关注。惠誉将中国万科评级下调至接近违约水平，凸显这一行业最后一家大型开发商所面临的风险。此次下调正值中国经济数据走弱之际，消费、投资乏力，主要城市新房价格持续下跌。这些迹象令稳定房地产市场的承诺成效受到质疑，中国也已进入第四年通缩。经济学家警告，供给过剩、需求疲软以及对出口驱动增长的依赖，可能使通缩压力延续至2026年。由于房地产曾贡献中国多达三分之一的增长，“日本化”担忧升温。在高额美方关税背景下，未解决的房地产问题或将长期拖累中国经济。
