China’s GDP Holds Firm Amid Iran War Uncertainty
在伊朗战争不确定性下中国经济保持稳定
China’s first-quarter economic growth is expected to remain solid despite global uncertainty caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts believe these tensions may overshadow economic performance but are unlikely to trigger immediate stimulus from Beijing. Instead, policymakers are expected to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. Economist Ding Shuang forecasts GDP growth of about 4.8%, supported by resilient trade and gradually recovering consumption. While external risks persist, China’s economy shows stability in early 2026, reducing urgency for aggressive policy intervention.
尽管美以对伊朗战争及霍尔木兹海峡运输受阻带来全球不确定性，中国一季度经济增长仍预计稳健。分析人士认为局势可能掩盖经济表现，但北京短期内不太可能推出刺激政策，而是采取观望态度。经济学家丁爽预计GDP增长约4.8%，主要受贸易韧性和消费逐步恢复支撑。虽然外部风险仍在，中国经济在2026年初表现稳定，降低了大规模刺激政策的紧迫性。
